Guide
Favourites vs Underdogs: How to Think About Each
Quick Summary
- Favorites have shorter odds, higher implied chance and smaller returns.
- Underdogs pay more but win less often, and long shots are often overpriced.
- Value is about price against chance, not about picking winners.
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- Fact-checked Nov 2026
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Everybody has a story about the underdog who came through and the favorite who collapsed. Those stories are fun, but they make it easy to forget the arithmetic behind each side. Here is the deal on what the labels mean, how prices differ, and why neither type is automatically the smart bet.
What the labels mean
The favorite is the side the sportsbook prices as most likely to win, so it carries the shortest odds. The underdog is the other side, with longer odds. In a two-team market the favorite might be 1.50 and the underdog 2.60. A ৳100 bet returns ৳150 on the first and ৳260 on the second.
Remember that these numbers include the sportsbook's margin. The implied chances of both sides add up to slightly more than 100 percent. Our odds guide shows how to convert prices to percentages.
| Side | Decimal price | Return on ৳100 | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 1.50 | ৳150 | about 67% |
| Underdog | 2.60 | ৳260 | about 38% |
The case for backing favorites
Favorites win more often, so your balance moves in smaller, steadier steps. Short prices also mean smaller profits, so one loss can erase several wins. A favorite at 1.50 must win roughly two out of three bets just to break even on that price alone.
Favorites also attract plenty of public money. Popular teams get backed by fans, which can make prices a little shorter than the true chance warrants. Backing them blindly is not a plan.
A practical way to use this: if you like a favorite, ask whether you would still bet at a slightly shorter price. If the answer is no, the current price is already your limit, and you should not stretch it.
The case for backing underdogs
Underdogs pay more when they win, so one success can cover several losses. This is the appeal. The risk is the opposite: they lose most of the time, and long losing runs can empty a bankroll quickly.
Research on betting markets often notes a favorite-longshot effect, where very long odds tend to be poorer value than shorter ones. We do not quote figures because they vary by sport and sportsbook, but the lesson holds: a big payout does not mean a good bet.
If you do back an underdog, size the stake as if you expect to lose several in a row. That mindset keeps the occasional win enjoyable instead of making every loss feel urgent.
Thinking in terms of value
Value is when your estimate of the chance is higher than the chance implied by the price. If you think a team has a 45 percent chance and the odds imply 38 percent, there is value in theory. If you cannot tell the difference between your guess and the price, you are not betting on value, you are betting on hope.
In cricket, conditions can change a side's standing between favorite and underdog quickly. Our match winner guide and cricket tips page describe how to research before choosing.
- Estimate the chance before you look at the price
- Compare your number with the implied chance
- Skip the bet if you are unsure
- Do not treat one result as proof either way
Habits that apply to both sides
Whichever side you pick, keep stakes small and consistent. Raising stakes on underdogs after a loss is a form of chasing, which our article on gambling tilt describes in detail. Also remember that prices move before kick-off or the first ball; see why odds move.
Do it in three
Compare favorite and underdog in 3 steps
- 1Convert the odds
Turn each price into an implied chance by dividing 1 by the decimal odds.
- 2Add your own view
Write down the chance you honestly believe, based on conditions and form.
- 3Bet only on a clear gap
Stake a small fixed amount if your chance is higher than the price implies, otherwise skip.